Review of historical price trends

In the past decade, China's LSAW (straight seam submerged arc welding) steel pipe export prices have experienced many ups and downs. During the period of 2010-2013, benefiting from the global infrastructure construction boom, especially the large-scale investment in oil and gas transmission pipelines by emerging economies, the international demand for LSAW Steel Pipes was strong. At that time, China's LSAW steel pipes occupied an important share in the international market with relatively stable quality and cost advantages, and the export price rose steadily. For example, in 2012, the export free on board (FOB) price of ordinary LSAW steel pipes reached about US$800/ton, an increase of nearly 20% from the beginning of 2010. During this period, the overall international commodity prices rose, and the rise in the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coke also pushed up the production cost of LSAW steel pipes, which in turn led to higher export prices.

However, since 2014, the problem of overcapacity in the global steel industry has gradually become prominent, and the competition in the international market has become increasingly fierce. In order to compete for market share, many steel producers have lowered their product prices. At the same time, trade protectionism has risen, and trade frictions against Chinese steel products have continued to intensify. Major markets such as the European Union and the United States have launched multiple anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on Chinese LSAW steel pipes and imposed high tariffs. Under multiple pressures, China's LSAW steel pipe export prices have continued to decline from the highs in 2014. By 2016, the export price fell to about US$550/ton, a drop of more than 30% from the peak in 2012. During this period, domestic LSAW steel pipe manufacturers faced huge survival pressure and their export business was severely impacted.

In 2017-2018, with the slow recovery of the global economy and the advancement of supply-side structural reforms in the steel industry, China's LSAW steel pipe export prices rebounded to a certain extent. The domestic steel industry has achieved remarkable results in de-capacity, some backward production capacity has been eliminated, and the market supply and demand relationship has improved. At the same time, the international market demand for infrastructure construction has rebounded, especially the promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative, which has driven the demand for LSAW steel pipes in countries along the route. Against this background, China's LSAW steel pipe export price rebounded to about US$650/ton in 2018, but it has not yet returned to the historical high in 2012.

Price performance and influencing factors in recent years

Price dynamics from 2020 to 2025

In early 2020, affected by the global spread of the new crown epidemic, the world economy stagnated, the international market demand for LSAW steel pipes plummeted, and China's LSAW steel pipe export prices were once again under pressure to fall. In the first half of 2020, the export price fell to about US$600/ton. However, as countries have successively introduced economic stimulus policies, infrastructure construction investment has gradually recovered, and the demand for LSAW steel pipes has begun to pick up. Especially in the second half of 2020, China's epidemic prevention and control has achieved remarkable results, and it has taken the lead in resuming work and production. LSAW steel pipe manufacturers have quickly restored production capacity and met the urgent needs of some international markets. During this period, export prices gradually stabilized and rebounded to about US$630/ton in early 2021.

Entering 2021-2022, global commodity prices rose sharply, and the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coal hit new highs. The production cost of LSAW steel pipes rose sharply, pushing export prices to continue to rise. In mid-2021, the export FOB price of ordinary LSAW steel pipes exceeded US$700/ton, and by early 2022, the price further climbed to about US$750/ton. However, high prices also suppressed some international market demand, resulting in a certain degree of decline in export volume.

From the second half of 2022 to 2023, global economic growth slowed down, the uncertainty of the international trade environment increased, and the export price of LSAW steel pipes faced downward pressure again. At the same time, after the expansion of domestic steel industry capacity in the early stage, the market supply was relatively sufficient, and the situation of oversupply gradually emerged. Under the influence of multiple factors, China's LSAW steel pipe export price fell to about US$680/ton in 2023.

From the beginning of 2024 to March 2025, the overall export price of LSAW steel pipes was relatively low and fluctuated frequently. In the first half of 2024, affected by the continued sluggish demand in the international market and the intensification of trade frictions, the export price continued to decline, once falling to about US$650/ton. In the second half of the year, with the gradual start of infrastructure construction projects in some emerging economies, demand rebounded and prices rebounded slightly. By the end of 2024, the export price rebounded to about US$660/ton. As of early March 2025, according to market monitoring data, the export FOB price of ordinary LSAW steel pipes remained at about US$665/ton, but the market still faced many uncertainties and price fluctuations were more obvious.

Key factors affecting export prices

International market supply and demand: On the demand side, the construction of oil and gas pipelines and large-scale infrastructure projects have a significant impact on the demand for LSAW steel pipes. In recent years, although the development of global oil and gas resources has made some progress, the pace of project construction has slowed down due to factors such as geopolitics and energy policy adjustments, which has put some pressure on the demand for LSAW steel pipes. For example, due to the unstable political situation, the construction progress of some oil and gas pipeline projects in the Middle East has been delayed, resulting in a delay or reduction in the purchase demand for LSAW steel pipes. The construction industry is affected by factors such as the global economic environment and real estate market fluctuations, and the demand for LSAW steel pipes is also unstable. From the supply side, the production capacity and output of global LSAW steel pipe manufacturers affect market supply. In addition to China, India, Russia, South Korea and other countries also have certain LSAW steel pipe production capacity. If the production capacity of enterprises in other countries expands too fast, while demand growth is limited, and the market is oversupplied, China's LSAW steel pipe export price will face downward pressure. For example, India has increased its investment in the steel industry in the past few years, and the production capacity of LSAW steel pipes has grown rapidly. Its products compete with Chinese products in the international market, which has a suppressive effect on the export price of Chinese LSAW steel pipes.

Fluctuation of raw material costs: Steel is the main raw material for LSAW steel pipes, and its price fluctuations directly affect the export cost of LSAW steel pipes. Changes in the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coke will be transmitted to steel prices, which in turn affect the price of LSAW steel pipes. The international iron ore market is highly concentrated, and a few mining giants have a strong say in prices. When mines reduce production due to natural disasters, geopolitics and other reasons, iron ore prices tend to rise sharply. For example, the Vale mining accident in Brazil in 2019 led to a reduction in global iron ore supply and soaring prices, which greatly increased the procurement costs of Chinese steel mills, and the production costs of LSAW steel pipes rose accordingly, and the export prices also increased accordingly. In addition, the price of coke is affected by factors such as coal industry policies and environmental protection restrictions, and fluctuates greatly, which also has an important impact on the cost and export price of LSAW steel pipes.

International trade policies and frictions: International trade frictions have a huge impact on the export price of LSAW steel pipes. China is a major steel producer and exporter. If other countries impose tariffs on Chinese steel products, it will inhibit the export of Chinese LSAW steel pipes, resulting in increased supply in the domestic market and a drop in export prices. The United States has frequently imposed tariffs on Chinese steel products in the past few years. In 2018, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on LSAW steel pipes imported from China, which has greatly reduced the price competitiveness of Chinese LSAW steel pipes in the US market and sharply reduced export volume. In order to maintain market share, domestic companies have to lower export prices and compress profit margins. At the same time, non-tariff trade barriers such as technical barriers and environmental protection standards set by some countries have also increased the compliance costs of Chinese LSAW steel pipe exporters, indirectly affecting export prices. For example, the EU has strict environmental standards for imported steel. Chinese companies need to invest more funds in technical transformation and product testing to meet its standards, which undoubtedly increases product costs and has a negative impact on export prices.

Exchange rate fluctuations: The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has an important impact on the export price of LSAW steel pipes. When the RMB depreciates, the price of Chinese LSAW steel pipes denominated in foreign currencies is relatively lower, and the price competitiveness in the international market is enhanced. The export volume may increase, but the profit margin of enterprises may be affected by the lower price after conversion into RMB. On the contrary, when the RMB appreciates, the export price of Chinese LSAW steel pipes is relatively higher, which may lead to a decrease in export volume. In the second half of 2024, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated to a certain extent, which improved the price advantage of Chinese LSAW steel pipes in the international market and promoted exports to a certain extent. Although the export price denominated in US dollars has not risen significantly, after conversion into RMB, the actual income of enterprises has increased, which has alleviated the cost pressure to a certain extent.

Product quality and technological innovation: As the international market continues to increase the quality and performance requirements of LSAW steel pipes, products with higher quality and more advanced technology often get higher prices. If Chinese companies can increase their investment in research and development and improve product quality, such as producing LSAW steel pipes with higher strength and better corrosion resistance to meet the needs of the high-end market, they can strive for more favorable prices in exports. Through technological innovation, some enterprises have developed LSAW steel pipes with special specifications and high performance, which are used in special fields such as deep-sea oil extraction and pipeline construction under extreme climatic conditions. Their export prices are significantly higher than ordinary products. For example, a company has developed a low-temperature toughness LSAW steel pipe suitable for high-cold areas. With its excellent performance, its export price is 20%-30% higher than that of ordinary LSAW steel pipes.

Future price trend forecast

Short-term trend forecast

In the short term, in the next 1-2 years, the export price of LSAW steel pipes is expected to show moderate fluctuations based on the current level. On the one hand, although the global economy faces certain challenges, some emerging economies still have infrastructure construction needs. For example, countries in Southeast Asia and Africa plan to promote the construction of energy transmission pipelines, which will provide certain support for the export price of LSAW steel pipes. On the other hand, the uncertainty of trade frictions still exists. If major importing countries further impose tariffs or set up new trade barriers, it will exert downward pressure on export prices. At the same time, fluctuations in raw material prices will continue to affect the production cost of LSAW steel pipes. It is expected that in 2025, the export FOB price of ordinary LSAW steel pipes may fluctuate in the range of US$650-680/ton. If the international market demand recovers significantly and the trade environment improves, the price is expected to break through the upper limit of the range; on the contrary, if the demand continues to be sluggish and trade frictions intensify, the price may face the risk of falling below the lower limit of the range.

Long-term trend outlook

In the long run, with the adjustment of the global energy demand structure, the development and utilization of clean energy continues to increase, but oil and natural gas will continue to be important sources of energy for a long period of time in the future, which provides certain long-term support for the demand for LSAW steel pipes. However, if the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry is not fundamentally solved globally, it will continue to have a negative impact on price trends. Under the guidance of industrial policies, the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the global steel industry will change the market supply and demand relationship, and thus affect the future trend of China's LSAW steel pipe export prices. For example, if the steel industry achieves green and low-carbon production, reduces production costs, and improves product quality and performance through technological innovation, the competitiveness of China's LSAW steel pipes in the international market will be enhanced, and export prices are expected to stabilize or rise moderately. However, if Chinese enterprises lag behind their international competitors in terms of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, export prices may face greater downward pressure. In addition, changes in the international trade pattern, such as the signing of regional trade agreements and the rise of emerging markets, will also bring new opportunities and challenges to China's LSAW steel pipe export prices. It is expected that in the next 5-10 years, China's LSAW steel pipe export prices will fluctuate and adjust in a complex market environment, and the overall trend depends on the combined effect of multiple factors such as global supply and demand structure, technological progress and trade policies.