Review of historical price trends

In the past period of time, China's SSAW Steel Pipe export prices have experienced relatively complex fluctuations. In the early days, with the rapid rise of the domestic steel industry and the rising demand for infrastructure materials in the international market, China's SSAW steel pipes emerged in the international market with cost advantages, and the export price was relatively stable and on an upward channel. Especially during the period of 2010-2013, the global emerging economies carried out large-scale infrastructure construction, and the demand for oil and natural gas pipelines was strong, which drove the export volume and price of SSAW steel pipes. At that time, China's SSAW steel pipe export prices followed the trend of international commodity prices and rose steadily. The export prices of some conventional specifications of SSAW steel pipes reached a relatively high level.

However, in 2015-2016, the global steel industry faced a crisis of overcapacity and international market competition became increasingly fierce. In order to compete for market share, steel companies in many countries have lowered product prices. China's SSAW steel pipe exports were also hit, and export prices began to decline. At the same time, trade protectionism is on the rise, and some countries have set up trade barriers and imposed high tariffs on Chinese steel products, further squeezing the profit margins of Chinese SSAW steel pipe exporters, and export prices have continued to be sluggish.

Price trends and driving factors in recent years

Price fluctuations in recent years

From 2020 to 2024, China's SSAW steel pipe export prices have shown a trend of rising first, then falling, and then fluctuating. In 2020-2021, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, increased investment in infrastructure construction, and de-capacity in the steel industry, the international market demand for SSAW steel pipes has increased significantly, and prices have risen significantly. For example, in some Southeast Asian countries, due to the construction of large-scale energy projects, there is a strong demand for SSAW steel pipes, and the price of SSAW steel pipes exported from China to the region has risen accordingly. However, in 2022-2023, global economic growth has slowed down, the domestic real estate market has adjusted, the demand for construction steel has weakened, and the overall demand for SSAW steel pipes in the international market has shrunk. At the same time, after the expansion of the steel industry's production capacity in the early stage, the market supply was relatively sufficient, and the situation of oversupply gradually emerged, and the export price of SSAW steel pipes began to enter a downward channel. From the beginning of 2024 to March 2025, the export price of SSAW steel pipes was generally at a relatively low level and fluctuated frequently.

Key factors affecting export prices

Supply and demand relationship in the international market: On the demand side, fields such as oil pipeline construction and construction engineering have a significant impact on the demand for SSAW steel pipes. In recent years, although the development of global oil and gas resources and the construction of transmission pipelines have been promoted to a certain extent, the speed has slowed down compared with before, which has put certain pressure on the demand for SSAW steel pipes. The construction industry is affected by factors such as the global economic environment, and the demand for SSAW steel pipes is also unstable. From the supply side, the production capacity and output of global SSAW steel pipe manufacturers affect market supply. If the production capacity of enterprises in other countries expands too fast, while demand growth is limited, and the market is oversupplied, China's SSAW steel pipe export price will face downward pressure; on the contrary, when supply is insufficient, prices will rise. For example, when the production capacity of SSAW steel pipes in countries such as India and Turkey has increased significantly, and the demand in the international market has not grown synchronously, China's SSAW steel pipes face more intense competition in the international market, and export prices are suppressed.

Fluctuation of raw material costs: Steel is the main raw material for SSAW steel pipes, and its price fluctuations directly affect the export cost of SSAW steel pipes. Changes in the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coke will be transmitted to steel prices, which in turn affect the export price of SSAW steel pipes. If the international iron ore market rises due to reduced production in mines and changes in the international supply pattern, Chinese steel mills will increase the ex-factory price of steel to ensure profits, and the cost of purchasing steel for SSAW steel pipe manufacturers will increase, which will eventually lead to an increase in the export price of SSAW steel pipes. In 2021, the price of iron ore rose sharply, causing a sharp increase in steel costs, and the export price of China's SSAW steel pipes was also pushed upward.

International trade policies and frictions: International trade frictions have a huge impact on the export price of SSAW steel pipes. China is a major steel producer and exporter. If other countries impose tariffs on Chinese steel products, it will inhibit the export of Chinese SSAW steel pipes, leading to an increase in domestic market supply and a drop in export prices. For example, the United States has frequently imposed tariffs on Chinese steel products in recent years, which has reduced the price competitiveness of Chinese SSAW steel pipes in the US market and reduced export volumes. In order to maintain market share, domestic companies have to adjust their export price strategies. At the same time, non-tariff trade barriers such as technical barriers and environmental protection standards set by some countries have also increased the compliance costs of Chinese SSAW steel pipe export companies, indirectly affecting export prices.

Exchange rate fluctuations: The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has an important impact on the export price of SSAW steel pipes. When the RMB depreciates, the price of Chinese SSAW steel pipes denominated in foreign currencies is relatively lower, and the price competitiveness in the international market is enhanced. The export volume may increase, but the profit margin of the company may be affected by the lower price after conversion into RMB. Conversely, when the RMB appreciates, the export price of Chinese SSAW steel pipes is relatively higher, which may lead to a decrease in export volume. For example, in the second half of 2024, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated to a certain extent, which improved the price advantage of Chinese SSAW steel pipes in the international market and promoted exports to a certain extent, but the export price may not have risen significantly when denominated in RMB.

Product quality and technological innovation: As the international market's requirements for the quality and performance of SSAW steel pipes continue to increase, products with higher quality and more advanced technology often get higher prices. If Chinese companies can increase their investment in research and development and improve product quality, such as producing SSAW steel pipes with higher strength and better corrosion resistance to meet the needs of the high-end market, they can strive for more favorable prices in exports. Through technological innovation, some companies have developed special specifications and high-performance SSAW steel pipes for use in special fields such as deep-sea oil extraction, and their export prices are significantly higher than ordinary products.

Future price trend forecast

Short-term trend forecast

In the short term, entering the traditional peak season of demand, international market demand is expected to be gradually released, but due to the current high inventory in the global market and slow demand recovery, the export price of SSAW steel pipes has limited momentum for growth, and it is expected to maintain a stable or narrow adjustment trend. If the global market inventory declines faster and demand rebounds significantly, export prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. At the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to the dynamics of international trade policies. If trade frictions further intensify, it may put downward pressure on export prices; if the RMB exchange rate remains relatively stable or changes favorably, it will provide some support for export prices.

Long-term trend outlook

In the long run, with the continued growth of global energy demand and the advancement of infrastructure construction such as oil pipelines, the demand for SSAW steel pipes will be supported to a certain extent. But at the same time, if the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry is not effectively solved globally, it will still have an impact on price trends. Under the guidance of industrial policies, the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the global steel industry will also change the market supply and demand relationship, and thus affect the future trend of China's SSAW steel pipe export prices. For example, if the global steel industry improves production efficiency and reduces costs through technological innovation, or the market demand structure changes, the demand for high-end and high-performance SSAW steel pipes will increase, and Chinese companies can follow the trend, increase R&D and production investment, and enhance product competitiveness, which will help stabilize and increase export prices; on the contrary, if they are at a disadvantage in international competition, export prices may face greater downward risks.